Foreign Exchange Markets 2010: Shaw Capital Management

The main feature of the foreign exchange markets over the past month has

been the further sharp fall in the euro. There has been no real change in

the background economic situation in the euro-zone; but there has been

a serious deterioration in the financial background as doubts have increased

about the ability of Greece and some other periphery countries to cope

with their massive fiscal deficits and service their sovereign debts.

This is clearly leading to a withdrawal of international funds from the

European capital markets, and is dramatically illustrated in the widening

of yield spreads in the bond markets of member countries.

There is still a general assumption that the stronger members will provide

support for the weaker members if this proves to be necessary to prevent

a default on sovereign debts.

But the uncertainties have been increased by conflicting statements from

the European Central Bank and some politicians about the willingness to

undertake such operations, and so investors and speculators have taken

evasive action, and the euro has fallen by around 10% from its peak in early-

December.

This fall has provided support for the other major world currencies, including

the dollar; but the background situations in Japan, and in the UK, also

provide reasons for concern, and so the currency markets remain in a very

uncertain state.

It is likely that the uncertainty will continue. The US economy is clearly

recovering from recession; economic conditions in Japan are very weak,

and Japan appears to face the possibility of a credit downgrade if it does

not take steps to reduce its massive fiscal deficit; and there have already

been warnings from Standard and Poor’s that the UK also faces the possibility

of a credit downgrade if there are no convincing measures to reduce its

huge fiscal deficit after the forthcoming general election.

Prospects are therefore very difficult to assess; but our tentative conclusion

is that the dollar will continue to “improve”, helped to a considerable extent

by weaknesses elsewhere; and that this will allow market pressures to

gradually subside as the global economic recovery continues through the

year.

But the possibility of a major currency crisis cannot

be ignored, especially if the debt problems in Greece

and other periphery countries threaten to lead to the

break-up of the single currency system in Europe.

It is fortunate therefore that the available evidence

on the performance of the US economy is more

encouraging. Non-farm payrolls fell again in December

by 85,000, but are expected to have increased in

January; retail sales held up well in the pre-Christmas

period; manufacturing output is improving, according

to the latest report from the Institute of Supply

Management; and even the housing market appears

to be recovering.

This general situation is reflected in the first

preliminary estimate from the Commerce Department

of growth at a seasonally adjusted annualised rate of

5.7% in the final quarter of last year, a higher figure

than the market had been expecting.

Most economists therefore appear to be forecasting

overall growth this year in the 2.5% to 3% range, after

the estimated fall of 2.4% last year.

The Fed is clearly in no hurry to tighten its present

monetary stance. The statement after the latest

meeting of its Open Market Committee was more

upbeat about the prospects for the economy; but shortterm

interest rates were left unchanged and close to

zero, and there was a clear indication that they would

remain at very low levels “for an extended period”.

The bank did state that it will discontinue most of its

emergency lending programmes, and that it would

end its purchases of mortgage securities in March; but

there was no indication that it would be prepared to

implement an “exit strategy” until there was

convincing evidence of a sustainable economic

recovery. It is also unlikely that there will be any early

changes in fiscal policy.

The recent State of the Union message to Congress by

President Obama included a request for the approval

of a further fiscal stimulus package this year amounting

to around $100 billion to help to tackle the

unemployment problem, and he has also presented a

$3.8 trillion budget for fiscal 2011 that is likely to

maintain the overall deficit around the $1.35 trillion

level expected this year.

Much will depend on the attitude of overseas holders,

and especially on the attitude of the Chinese and

Japanese authorities.

For the present they seem to be prepared to maintain

and even increase their dollar exposure; and if this

continues, and the problems of other major currencies

remain unresolved, it should be enough to allow the

dollar to “improve”.

The euro struggled to recover in the early part of

January from the big fall that occurred in December;

but the recovery did not last very long, and it has

subsequently fallen sharply again, to leave it value

against the dollar around 10% below the level in early-

December.

There has been no significant change in the underlying

economic background, although there is some evidence

that the fragile recovery that was developing is losing

some momentum.

But there has been a serious deterioration in the

financial background as the fears have increased that

Greece and some other periphery countries in the

euro-zone may be unable to fund their massive fiscal

deficits, and service their sovereign debts.

There is also considerable uncertainty about the

intentions of the European Central Bank and the

stronger countries if conditions continue to worsen,

and so overseas holders have started to withdraw

funds from the European capital markets to await

developments.

The present lack of urgency at the central bank and

amongst the key politicians suggests that this trend

will continue, and that the euro will fall still further;

but there is still some hope that the seriousness of the

situation will finally produce a support operation that

will ease the situation.

All the available evidence continues to point to a slow,

two-speed recovery in the euro-zone economy.

Germany and France appear to be performing

reasonably well, although there are some signs of

slowdown in Germany; but Greece, Portugal, Spain,

Ireland, and even Italy are struggling to escape from

recession, and are expected to keep overall output in

the euro-zone this year around the 1% level.

There is also considerable uncertainty about the intentions

of the European Central Bank and the stronger countries

if conditions continue to worsen, and so overseas holders

have started to withdraw funds from the European capital

markets to await developments.

Retail sales remain depressed, and fell by 1.2% between October and

November to reflect the continuing caution of consumers; and industrial

orders in Germany rose by much less than expected in November, after a

very disappointing result in October, to indicate some weakness in export

prospects that had been expected to provide significant momentum to the

economy.

Prospects therefore remain disappointing, and are being made worse by

the differences that exist between member countries.

The European Central Bank therefore faces a difficult situation. It continues

to forecast “moderate” growth and “moderate” inflation; but it is being

severely criticised for failing to address the problems of a two-speed

economy, and for its unwillingness so far to face the threat that the

deteriorating situation in Greece could quickly begin to destabilise other

member countries and have serious consequences for the financial stability

and growth prospects of the entire area.

It is not surprising therefore that investors and speculators have started

to reduce their exposure to the euro.

The critical question therefore is whether the fall of the euro is now over.

Since the currency is unlikely to receive any real support from the general

background situation in the euro-zone, everything depends on the

developing debt situation, and particularly on the situation in Greece; and

also on the possibility of support operations from stronger member countries

and from the European Central Bank, and the European Commission.

The situation remains uncertain. The central bank appears to be reluctant

to offer help, and the German government, which might have been expected

to become involved, has also made no response so far.

But the European Commission has endorsed the latest plans by the Greek

government to introduce an across-the-board freeze on public sector wages

and cuts in allowances that are expected to reduce the overall public sector

wage bill by around 4%.

This may encourage support from elsewhere; however the Commission has

warned that it will not tolerate any slippage from the target and will if

necessary demand tougher action from the government to ensure that it

stays on course.

But it is far from clear that the Greek government can obtain the necessary

support in parliament even for the present proposed measures, and so the

uncertainty will continue.

It is therefore likely that there will be further falls in the euro over the

coming weeks.

Sterling has improved slightly over the past month, helped by the weakness

of the euro.

The background situation in the UK remains unattractive, and there have

already been threats that its AAA credit rating is at risk unless there are

credible measures to reduce the massive fiscal deficit after the forthcoming

general election is over.

The European Central Bank therefore faces a

difficult situation. It continues to forecast

“moderate” growth and “moderate” inflation;

but it is being severely criticised for failing

to address the problems of a two-speed

economy, and for its unwillingness so far to

face the threat that the deteriorating situation

in Greece could quickly begin to destabilise

other member countries and have serious

consequences for the financial stability and

growth prospects of the entire area.

But the UK is not constrained by membership of the European single

currency system, and so there is no immediate risk of a default on its

sovereign debts.

It has therefore been able to benefit from the problems affecting some

other European countries.

The latest figures from the Office of National Statistics indicate that the UK

just managed to move out of recession in the final quarter of last year. The

estimate of growth of only 0.1% in the quarter was a considerable

disappointment, and it is expected that it will be revised higher; but clearly

the economy is not performing very well.

Government spending remains strong, and there was a surge in retail sales

in the run-up to Christmas; but the anecdotal evidence suggests that

consumers became much more cautious again in January.

The latest meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England

was concerned by the poor reaction so far to the dramatic measures that

have been introduced to counter the recession, and reacted to this situation

by leaving UK base rates unchanged once again at 0.5%.

It clearly has no intention of moving to an “exit strategy” until there is

convincing evidence that a sustainable recovery in the economy is underway.

It did announce that purchases of market securities under the quantitative

easing programme would now be discontinued after the £200 billion target

has been reached; but its main priority is to continue to provide support

for the fragile economic recovery.

Fiscal policy is also likely to remain unchanged until after the election,

because the necessary measures to reduce the huge deficit will be unpopular,

and might influence the outcome of that election.

Sterling is therefore receiving no real support from the domestic background

situation, and in other circumstances might have been expected to move

lower.

But the problems affecting the other major global currencies, and particularly

the problems affecting the euro, have at least delayed any further falls.

The yen has improved over the past month, despite a generally unfavourable

domestic background situation, and some attempts by the Japanese

authorities to prevent its appreciation against other currencies.

It has achieved an enhanced “safe haven” status in the current storm in

the currency markets, and on the back of the relative success of its exports.

But conditions in the Japanese economy remain very weak, and there has

even been the threat of a downgrade of its credit rating unless measures

are introduced to reduce its massive fiscal deficit.

However it does not appear that this threat will prevent the new Japanese

government from introducing further measures to stimulate the economy,

and urging the Bank of Japan to intervene in the markets to weaken the

yen, and so its prospects remain very uncertain.

Shaw Capital Management March Newsletter: Japanese Government Submits Budget for Next Fiscal Year

Shaw Capital Management: Japanese Government Submits Budget for Next Fiscal Year

Japanese Government Submits Budget for Next Fiscal Year: Shaw Capital Management News

The Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) government submitted to the Diet the fiscal 2010 budget amounting to ¥92.3 trillion, its first budget since its inauguration in mid-September. The budget was even larger than its counterpart for the current fiscal year — which was already a record if one includes the second supplementary stimulus package, approved last December. This was because of additional spending on child allowances, free senior high school education, cash subsidies to farmers, and higher payments to medical institutions to alleviate the shortage of medical doctors. Particularly noteworthy is the large amount devoted to social security, up to ¥27.3 trillion, which account for 51% of general public spending … the first time that the social security share has exceeded 50%. In marked contrast, public works investment, which has been cut back by almost 20%, amounts to ¥5.8 trillion, a record drop that symbolizes the DPJ’s philosophy of shifting money to people from public works... eightynine dam projects are likely to be frozen.

At a news conference, Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama described it as “a budget meant to safeguard the life of the people.” He also claimed that three reforms were incorporated in the architecture of the budget: first, the principle of a shift of priority “from concrete to people”; second, initiatives taken by politicians instead of bureaucrats; and third, securing transparency in the budget formulation process. Some creditable aspects notwithstanding, the budget bill appears to be overshadowed, as media reports made clear, by concern over a severe revenue shortage and its implications for the future of Japan’s public finances, which are already debt-laden to a perilous extent as recently pointed out by credit rating agency Standard & Poor’s which raised the prospect of a downgrade in Japan’s sovereign debt rating. “The budget bill appears to be overshadowed by concern over a severe revenue shortage and its implications for the future of Japan’s public finances, which are already debt-laden to a perilous extent.” “Japan’s economic policy flexibility has diminished as a result of increased fiscal deficits and government debt, persistent deflation and a prospect of continued sluggish economic growth”, analysts at the firm said in a note.

“It’s impossible to keep tolerating this massive spending,” said Takeshi Minami , chief economist at Norinchukin Research Institute in Tokyo. “Japan’s fiscal health will continue to be exceedingly severe given revenue won’t grow and a stagnant recovery may require additional economic measures.” A major reason for the squeeze is a plunge in prospective tax revenues due to the economic downturn and the drop in corporate profits. Tax revenues for fiscal 2010 are estimated to fall to ¥37.4 trillion, the same level as 26 years ago, in the mid-1980s — while corporate tax revenues are expected to be half the amount in normal years. As a result, the government has to raise ¥44.3 billion in new government bonds, compared to ¥53.5 trillion in FY2009. This leaves the treasury dependent on debt for 48% of the total budget, up 10 percentage points.

 At the end of the fiscal year, on March 31, 2011, the outstanding balance of government bond issues will have shot up to ¥637 trillion, the equivalent of 134% of Japan’s GDP while public debt will probably spiral to ¥973 trillion, almost double GDP. “At the end of the fiscal year, on March 31, 2011, the outstanding balance of government bond issues will have shot up to ¥637 trillion, the equivalent of 134% of Japan’s GDP while public debt will probably spiral to ¥973 trillion, almost double GDP.”

According to the new government, the economic policies adopted by the previous ruling party, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), failed on two fronts: initially boosting demand by increasing public investment, which was effective in the short term but not sustainable until the end of the 1990s. And later enhancing the supply side of the economy by deregulating the labour market and privatizing public entities, which simply widened the income gap within the economy, in the 2000s. However, the new budget was not well received by most observers. The announcement was rather sudden and lacked a comprehensive path to achieve the stated goals, they claim. Also, no reliable, specific incentives were offered, such as tax changes or deregulation that affect private sector behaviour. More importantly, given its enormous debt, the government has limited room to offer any incentives without jeopardizing other parts of the economy. However, there was no mention of these painful trade-offs. In addition, while the budget contains some signs of change, there is concern that it may not adequately stimulate the economy. Most private sector economists believe that spending measures in the fiscal 2010 budget (and in the second fiscal 2009 supplementary budget) are expected to provide a limited boost to Japan’s GDP and to kick in no sooner than April. “Most private sector economists believe that spending measures in the fiscal 2010 budget are expected to provide a limited boost to Japan’s GDP and to kick in no sooner than April.”

Overall, the budget appears to be the result of a compromise between an attempt to impose some fiscal discipline and the promises made in last year’s summer election of new direct supports to households, such as child allowance, as well as concern over a double-dip recession. “Harsh financial conditions have prevented the administration from keeping all the promises that the DPJ made during its campaign last summer (for instance it has eliminated highway tolls and the gasoline tax). But the administration has succeeded, to some extent, in realizing the party’s slogan of “shifting weight to people from concrete” and its aim of providing more funds for households, rather than for industry-linked organizations and large-scale public works projects”, asserted in its editorial the Japan Times, one of the main national newspapers. “Almost every move the government makes over the coming months must be seen against the backdrop of the crucial upper house election, which must be held in July for half of the seats.”

The budget must now be approved by Japan’s parliament before takingeffect. Hatoyama’s popularity has dropped to 48% this month from 71% after he took the office in September. Almost every move the government makes over the coming months must be seen against the backdrop of the crucial upper house election, which must be held in July for half of the seats. So in the end the budget and its goals may be more dream than reality.

Shaw Capital Management Newsletter: Japan Submits Budget for 2010

The Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) government submitted to the Diet the fiscal 2010 budget amounting to ¥92.3 trillion, its first budget since its inauguration in mid-September. The budget was even larger than its counterpart for the current fiscal year — which was already a record if one includes the second supplementary stimulus package, approved last December. This was because of additional spending on child allowances, free senior high school education, cash subsidies to farmers, and higher payments to medical institutions to alleviate the shortage of medical doctors. Particularly noteworthy is the large amount devoted to social security, up to ¥27.3 trillion, which account for 51% of general public spending … the first time that the social security share has exceeded 50%. In marked contrast, public works investment, which has been cut back by almost 20%, amounts to ¥5.8 trillion, a record drop that symbolizes the DPJ’s philosophy of shifting money to people from public works... eightynine dam projects are likely to be frozen.

At a news conference, Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama described it as “a budget meant to safeguard the life of the people.” He also claimed that three reforms were incorporated in the architecture of the budget: first, the principle of a shift of priority “from concrete to people”; second, initiatives taken by politicians instead of bureaucrats; and third, securing transparency in the budget formulation process. Some creditable aspects notwithstanding, the budget bill appears to be overshadowed, as media reports made clear, by concern over a severe revenue shortage and its implications for the future of Japan’s public finances, which are already debt-laden to a perilous extent as recently pointed out by credit rating agency Standard & Poor’s which raised the prospect of a downgrade in Japan’s sovereign debt rating.

“The budget bill appears to be overshadowed by concern over a severe revenue shortage and its implications for the future of Japan’spublic finances, which are already debt-laden to a perilous extent.”

“Japan’s economic policy flexibility has diminished as a result of increased fiscal deficits and government debt, persistent deflation and a prospect of continued sluggish economic growth”, analysts at the firm said in a note. “It’s impossible to keep tolerating this massive spending,” said Takeshi Minami , chief economist at Norinchukin Research Institute in Tokyo. “Japan’s fiscal health will continue to be exceedingly severe given revenue won’t grow and a stagnant recovery may require additional economic measures.” A major reason for the squeeze is a plunge in prospective tax revenues due to the economic downturn and the drop in corporate profits. Tax revenues for fiscal 2010 are estimated to fall to ¥37.4 trillion, the same level as 26 years ago, in the mid-1980s — while corporate tax revenues are expected to be half the amount in normal years. As a result, the government has to raise ¥44.3 billion in new government bonds, compared to ¥53.5 trillion in FY2009. This leaves the treasury dependent on debt for 48% of the total budget, up 10 percentage points. At the end of the fiscal year, on March 31, 2011, the outstanding balance of government bond issues will have shot up to ¥637 trillion, the equivalent of 134% of Japan’s GDP while public debt will probably spiral to ¥973 trillion, almost double GDP.

“At the end of the fiscal year, on March 31, 2011, the outstanding balance of government bond issues will have shot up to ¥637 trillion, the equivalent of 134% of Japan’s GDP while public debt will probably spiral to ¥973 trillion, almost double GDP.”

According to the new government, the economic policies adopted by the previous ruling party, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), failed on two fronts: initially boosting demand by increasing public investment, which was effective in the short term but not sustainable until the end of the 1990s. And later enhancing the supply side of the economy by deregulating the labour market and privatizing public entities, which simply widened the income gap within the economy, in the 2000s. However, the new budget was not well received by most observers. The announcement was rather sudden and lacked a comprehensive path to achieve the stated goals, they claim. Also, no reliable, specific incentives were offered, such as tax changes or deregulation that affect private sector behaviour.

More importantly, given its enormous debt, the government has limited room to offer any incentives without jeopardizing other parts of the economy. However, there was no mention of these painful trade-offs. In addition, while the budget contains some signs of change, there is concern that it may not adequately stimulate the economy. Most private sector economists believe that spending measures in the fiscal 2010 budget (and in the second fiscal 2009 supplementary budget) are expected to provide a limited boost to Japan’s GDP and to kick in no sooner than April. “Most private sector economists believe that spending measures in the fiscal 2010 budget are expected to provide a limited boost to Japan’s GDP and to kick in no sooner than April.”

Overall, the budget appears to be the result of a compromise between an attempt to impose some fiscal discipline and the promises made in last year’s summer election of new direct supports to households, such as child allowance, as well as concern over a double-dip recession. “Harsh financial conditions have prevented the administration from keeping all the promises that the DPJ made during its campaign last summer (for instance it has eliminated highway tolls and the gasoline tax). But the administration has succeeded, to some extent, in realizing the party’s slogan of “shifting weight to people from concrete” and its aim of providing more funds for households, rather than for industry-linked organizations and large-scale public works projects”, asserted in its editorial the Japan Times, one of the main national newspapers.

“Almost every move the government makes over the coming months must be seen against the backdrop of the crucial upper house election, which must be held in July for half of the seats.”

The budget must now be approved by Japan’s parliament before taking effect. Hatoyama’s popularity has dropped to 48% this month from 71% after he took the office in September. Almost every move the government makes over the coming months must be seen against the backdrop of the crucial upper house election, which must be held in July for half of the seats. So in the end the budget and its goals may be more dream than reality.

Government bond Markets Part 2 of 3: Shaw Capital Management Newsletter

Shaw Capital Management Korea February Newsletter:  Article two of three - Bond markets in mainland Europe have also fallen back towards year-end. There are signs of a modest improvement in the background economic situation in the euro-zone; and this seems to be persuading the European Central Bank to withdraw some of the liquidity measures that it introduced to counter the recession as part of a general tightening of monetary policy that might soon include higher short-term interest rates.

Shaw Capital Management Korea February Newsletter:  Article two of three - But a more serious immediate consideration for the markets has been the decision by some of the rating agencies to downgrade the credit rating of Greek government bonds, and to warn that other periphery member countries of the euro-zone have been placed on “credit watch” and might suffer the same fate. Investors have responded by widening the yield spreads between the bonds of member countries, and by pushing the overall level of yields higher. The markets appear to be expecting that the process will continue. The Fed appears to agree with this more optimistic view, arguing that economic activity is continuing to pick up, and that the deterioration in the labour market is abating. For weaknesses elsewhere.

Shaw Capital Management Korea February Newsletter:  Article two of three - There is also a fear that the contraction that is occurring in banking lending, and in the money supply, may be leading to another credit crunch this year that could extend the economic slowdown. Bank loans to businesses were 1.9% lower in November 2009 than in same month in 2008, and M3 money supply was 0.2% lower, and has been shrinking now for several months. Since an expansion in banking lending was a major plank in the European Central Bank’s efforts to combat the recession, this latest evidence of a contraction is a major policy failure, and should be persuading the ECB to move very slowly in dismantling its emergency measures; but all the evidence suggests that it is preparing to act. The latest meeting of its governing council left short-term interest rates and overall monetary policy unchanged; but subsequently the bank chairman argued that some of the existing liquidity measures were no longer needed and would be gradually replaced. This was a disappointment for bond investors, not only because such action might be premature and extend the recession, but also because some of the funds that had been made available had been used to support government bond issues.

Shaw Capital Management Korea February Newsletter:  Article two of three - However the more serious consideration was the downgrade of Greece’s credit rating, and the threat that other member countries of the euro-zone might receive similar treatment because of the increased risk of defaults. Bond issues in the zone reached the equivalent of $1350 billion in 2009, and are likely to exceed that figure this year, with Greece alone needing to sell $83 billion, and likely to try to rely on overseas investors for at least half the funds.

Article part two of three.

Shaw Capital Management Korea - Investment Innovation & Excellence.  We provide the information; insight and expertise that you need to make the right investment choices. Shaw Capital Management based in Korea typically offers its clients such services as asset allocation and portfolio design; traditional and non-traditional manager review and selection; portfolio implementation; portfolio monitoring and consolidated performance reporting; and other wealth management services, including estate, tax, trust and insurance planning, asset custody, closely held business issues associated with the establishment or expansion of a family office, the formation of family investment partnerships or LLCs, philanthropy, family dynamics and inter-generation issues, etc.

Every investor will achieve better long-term risk-adjusted results by working with a true open architecture advisor.

Government bond Markets: Shaw Capital Management February Newsletter

Government bond markets have ended 2009 on a very disappointing note. A further improvement in sentiment about the prospects for the global economic recovery, and indications that some central banks might be preparing to introduce early “exit strategies” from the measures that had been introduced to counter the recession, have been important factors in producing a more cautious attitude amongst bond investors. But a further significant consideration towards year-end has been the fear of possible defaults on sovereign debts after the decision by Dubai World, a government-owned company, to seek a moratorium on the servicing of its debts, and the downgrade in the credit rating of Greece because of its deteriorating fiscal situation.

Shaw Capital Management Korea February Newsletter: There was always the risk that the funding requirements resulting from recent policies, and particularly from the measures to counter the latest recession, would prove to be a massive burden for the global bond markets, and this has now proved to be the case. The Dubai government appears to have been rescued by help from Abu Dhabi; but it is still not clear whether there will be help for Greece and other periphery countries of the euro-zone that are in difficulties, and doubts have also been expressed about countries outside the euro-zone, including the UK, if central banks do not implement “exit strategies” carefully, and credible plans to reduce the massive fiscal deficits are not introduced fairly quickly.

Shaw Capital Management Korea February Newsletter: There was always the risk that the funding requirements resulting from recent policies would prove to be a massive burden for the global bond markets.

These doubts have already led to a significant widening of yield spreads on bonds of member countries of the euro-zone, with Greek bond yields now more than 2.5% higher than German bond yields; and even 10-year yields on US bonds and UK gilts have risen to the 4% level as investors have reduced their exposure.

Shaw Capital Management Korea February Newsletter: Our position on the prospects for the bond markets remains unchanged. We still expect that the recovery in the global economy will only develop at a very slow pace, and that “exit strategies” will only be introduced very gradually. The background situation will therefore continue to provide some support for bond markets.

But the timescale for the implementation of “exit strategies” is shortening; and the massive fiscal deficits are already placing great strains on the markets. The fears of defaults on sovereign debt may well be an overreaction; we expect, for example, that the weaker members of the eurozone will receive support from the stronger members to prevent defaults; but higher bond yields appear unavoidable. Prospects for all the major bond markets are therefore very unattractive.

Shaw Capital Management Korea February Newsletter: The performance of the US economy remains a critical factor in assessing those prospects, and the latest evidence has become more positive. The growth rate in the third quarter of the year has been revised down again; but since then there has been a lower-than-expected fall in non-farm payrolls, and an improvement in consumer sentiment that is reflected in a reasonable level of retail sales in the run-up to Christmas. Weaknesses remain, especially in manufacturing, and new house sales fell sharply in November; but a growth rate around 2% is expected this year. The Fed appears to agree with this more optimistic view, arguing in the statement after the latest meeting of its Open Market Committee that economic activity is continuing to pick up, and that the deterioration in the labour market is abating; but it is remaining very cautious. Interest rates are likely to be at low levels “for an extended period”, and the quantitative easing programme has been maintained, although some of the emergency liquidity measures will be withdrawn. It is clearly anxious to avoid doing anything that might harm the economic recovery. This should continue to provide some support for the bond market, even though the Fed will no longer be buying Treasuries and other corporate bonds; but it does appear that this will not be enough to offset the effects of the massive fiscal deficit, which is expected to reach $1.5 trillion this year, and to remain high well into the future.

Shaw Capital Management Korea February Newsletter: Debt issuance rose to over $2 trillion in 2009 to finance this deficit, and to replace maturing bonds; and the latest decision to take advantage of the unexpected windfall from the repayment of bank bail-out funds that are no longer needed to provide new resources for job creation is a clear indication that there are no plans to take early action to reduce the deficit.

It is not surprising therefore that bond investors have been reducing their exposure to the market, and that the yield curve has continued to steepen. In the absence of any change in policy, this process is likely to continue, and push overall yield levels even higher.

Article one of three.

Shaw Capital Management Korea - Investment Innovation & Excellence.  We provide the information; insight and expertise that you need to make the right investment choices. Shaw Capital Management based in Korea typically offers its clients such services as asset allocation and portfolio design; traditional and non-traditional manager review and selection; portfolio implementation; portfolio monitoring and consolidated performance reporting; and other wealth management services, including estate, tax, trust and insurance planning, asset custody, closely held business issues associated with the establishment or expansion of a family office, the formation of family investment partnerships or LLCs, philanthropy, family dynamics and inter-generation issues, etc.

Every investor will achieve better long-term risk-adjusted results by working with a true open architecture advisor.

Shaw Capital Management February Newsletter: Government bond Markets 3 of 3

Shaw Capital Management Korea February Newsletter:  Article three of three - The markets are assuming that the more powerful members of the eurozone will support the weaker members in order to prevent defaults that might threaten the single currency structure; but the yield spreads have widened considerably to reflect the increased risks. Our tentative view is that the markets will “muddle through”, and that defaults will be avoided; but higher overall yield levels seem unavoidable. Prospects in these markets are therefore very unattractive. The gilt edged market has also come under pressure over the past month; short-term yields have remained basically unchanged, but there have been increases in medium and longer-term yields that has produced a much steeper yield curve.

Shaw Capital Management Korea February Newsletter:  Article three of three - There has been evidence of a modest improvement in the economic background; and the Bank of England is proving to be a stabilising influence at a difficult time; but a very disappointing Pre-Budget Report has indicated that there will be no attempt to address the problems of the huge fiscal deficit until after the election. Our tentative view is that the markets will “muddle through”, and that defaults will be avoided; but higher overall yield levels seem unavoidable. Prospects in these markets are therefore very unattractive. Funding pressures will therefore continued to increase; and so, although there does not appear to be any real danger that the UK might join the list of countries that could default on their sovereign debts, annual debt issues in excess of £200 billion cannot continue for long if this is to be avoided. It is no surprise therefore that investors have reacted by reducing their exposure to the market.

Shaw Capital Management Korea February Newsletter:  Article three of three - There is still some doubt whether the UK economy has moved out of recession. The pace of contraction in the third quarter of the year has been slightly reduced, and since then the pace of job losses has declined, and consumer spending has held up fairly well. But business investment and manufacturing activity remains weak, and so there may have been no overall improvement in the final quarter of last year. The Bank of England has therefore kept short-term interest rates at 0.5%, and maintained its quantitative easing programme, and this has provided support for the market, since the bank has been a major buyer of gilts in recent months.

Shaw Capital Management Korea February Newsletter:  Article three of three - However it has not been enough to prevent a very adverse reaction to the Pre-Budget Report from the UK Chancellor. The market did not really expect any significant action on the deficit ahead of the forth-coming general election; but was still surprised by the apparent lack of realism. The government is prepared to allow the deficit to continue to accumulate, and is relying on the gilt edged market to provide the funds to finance that deficit in the hope that this will enable it to win the election, and has produced no real indications of how the deficit might be reduced even after the election is over. It is not surprising therefore that investors have reacted by reducing exposure, that 10-year yields have risen to 4% and longer-term yields to 4.5%, and that there are even suggestions that the country could face a capital flight and a full-blown debt crisis in the coming months. We do not share these extreme views; but clearly the prospects for the market are very unattractive, and higher yields appear unavoidable. Investors have reacted by reducing exposure... and there are even suggestions that the country could face a capital flight and a fullblown debt crisis in the coming months.

Shaw Capital Management Korea February Newsletter:  Article three of three - The Japanese bond market is basically unchanged over the past month; but there are fears that present yield levels are unsustainable. A sharp reduction in the growth estimate for the third quarter of last year, and weaknesses since then have raised the possibility of a move back into recession and a further period of deflation. The government has reacted by launching its fourth fiscal rescue package since the economic crisis began last year. It amounts to the equivalent of a further $81 billion to be spent in the regions and on subsidies for consumer durables, and is expected to lift the debt issuance this year to a record $835 billion, despite the indications that bond investors may be becoming increasingly unwilling to finance such a high level of new bonds, and the warning from the IMF that the government is risking a significant increase in debt funding costs. Since overseas involvement in the bond market is at a very low level, such a development is unlikely to affect bond markets elsewhere directly; but it could be a warning to other countries of the dangers of placing too much pressure on their own markets.

Shaw Capital Management Korea - Investment Innovation & Excellence.  We provide the information, insight and expertise that you need to make the right investment choices. Shaw Capital Management based in Korea typically offers its clients such services as asset allocation and portfolio design; traditional and non-traditional manager review and selection; portfolio implementation; portfolio monitoring and consolidated performance reporting; and other wealth management services, including estate, tax, trust and insurance planning, asset custody, closely held business issues associated with the establishment or expansion of a family office, the formation of family investment partnerships or LLCs, philanthropy, family dynamics and inter-generation issues, etc.

Every investor will achieve better long-term risk-adjusted results by working with a true open architecture advisor.

Shaw Capital Management News: Washington Waxes Brazilian

Brazil provides us with an example of a rapidly developing, energy-hungry economy in the Western Hemisphere, where biofuel is a fact of life. Biofuel is also an investment imperative for energy investors and companies that want to make money in Brazil. As an important part of the #3 economy in the Americas, ethanol can't be ignored by the United States.

(Sugar) Ethanol as a Global Commodity; Focus on Cosan Ltd. (NYSE: CZZ) Cosan is entering into a joint venture with an oil giant that could be worth $12 billion, and its happy beginning to 2010 signals a renewal of interest in ethanol and entrance of some unlikely participants into biofuels. Cosan, a Brazilian company that processes more sugar than anyone else in the world, is now joining with Royal Dutch Shell (NYSE: RDS), the #2 oil producer in Europe.

Shell is paying Cosan $1.625 billion for half of its core assets. As part of the joint venture that will emerge, Shell is also taking on Cosan's debt and opening up 2,740 Shell service stations to Cosan's sweet, green fuel. Shell will also give Cosan two small Brazilian companies … Codexis and Iogen … where Shell has been investing in ethanol. Cosan is entering into a joint venture with an oil giant that could be worth $12 billion, and...signals a renewal of interest in ethanol and entrance of some unlikely participants into biofuels.

Shaw Capital Management Korea News:  Cosan stands to gain big from an efficient system of turning agricultural leftovers into fuel in its own right. Of all the money and knowledge changing hands, one part is most important: By gaining access to Shell's distribution system, Cosan will have the luxury of ramping up production without

worrying if there will be buyers.

Shell wants to fertilize Cosan's cane-based business. Cosan output now has to grow from 2 billion liters per year up to the 3 billion that will be needed to satisfy a total 4,500 fuel stations in Brazil. From there, it's up to 4 and 5 billion liters annually and on to making ethanol a global commodity. You'd be hard pressed to tell the difference between Shell and Cosan's statements on this joint venture if you removed a couple of words. Very simply, each company wants access to the other's expertise. "Cosan represents the best entry to sustainable biofuels in the market... the best entry of scale," Shell's Mark Williams said in London. In Sao Paulo, Cosan Chairman Rubens Ometto said the tie-up is intended to be "the step forward that was lacking, in spite of all our efforts, to make ethanol a global commodity." Shell's 45,000 stations around the world will pump biofuel to vehicles that can run on gasoline, ethanol, or a mixture of the two.

Shaw Capital Management Korea News:  Low prices also help, as evidenced in Brazil where flex-fuel vehicles now account for 90% of new cars and truck sales. Shell's 45,000 stations around the world will pump biofuel to vehicles that can run on gasoline, ethanol, or a mixture of the two (Brazil mandates that all gasoline have at least a 20% ethanol component). As it stands, Brazilians are the end users of the vast majority of the ethanol that their country produces (about 25 billion liters annually). And you wouldn't know it from most of the media, but ethanol is more than just an automotive matter...

Shaw Capital Management, Korea - Investment Innovation & Excellence.  We provide the information, insight and expertise that you need to make the right investment choices. Shaw Capital Management Korea typically offers its clients such services as asset allocation and portfolio design; traditional and non-traditional manager review and selection; portfolio implementation; portfolio monitoring and consolidated performance reporting; and other wealth management services, including estate, tax, trust and insurance planning, asset custody, closely held business issues associated with the establishment or expansion of a family office, the formation of family investment partnerships or LLCs, philanthropy, family dynamics and inter-generation issues, etc.

Shaw Capital Management News: Flex-Fuel Power Plants Now Opening in Brazil

On January 19th 2010, the first ethanol-fired power plant whirred into action in Brazil. National oil company Petrobras (NYSE: PBR) and American systems giant General Electric (NYSE: GE) pitched in resources to turn an existing 87 MW plant into a flex-fuel power station that can alternate between natural gas and ethanol (which are both considered alternative fuels, even though only one is renewable).

GE wants to see how its turbines can be adapted to work in flex-fuel plants in Brazil and in developed countries like Japan, where clean-burning power plants are gaining momentum.

Brazil's water-dependent hydroelectric infrastructure teeters during the dry season in places where natural gas isn't easily accessible. It just so happen that wind power peaks at the opposite time of the year as the water in running rivers that drives dam-based generation.

Ethanol and wind could supplant natural gas as the primary alternative source of electricity generation during the dry season in Brazil and President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva said in the Brazilian press that Brazil could be selfsufficient in natural gas after several pre-salt (read: incredibly deep) offshore fossil fuel pockets are tapped.

That capacity is at least five years away. Ethanol is there now, and after wind power auctions started last December, 773 wind turbines will be turning across Brazil by 2012.

Shaw Capital Management Korea News: Shell, Petrobras, GE, and Cosan will surely push hard to get the government in Brasilia to initiate a nationwide "ethanol electricity" campaign to ensure that oil and automotive fuel aren't the key determinants of sugar ethanol's success.

As in so many other areas of the world, those communities that are now underserved by fossil fuels can benefit most from such clean energy advances.

The US Administration completed its revised Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS2). RFS2 will move towards a national goal of 26 billion gallons of biofuel production by 2022.

At Shaw Capital Management we give you the information and insight you need to make the right investment choices. We look forward to working with you and being the open architects of your financial well being.

Shaw Capital Management Korea - Investment Innovation & Excellence.  We provide the information, insight and expertise that you need to make the right investment choices. Shaw Capital Management Korea typically offers its clients such services as asset allocation and portfolio design; traditional and non-traditional manager review and selection; portfolio implementation; portfolio monitoring and consolidated performance reporting; and other wealth management services, including estate, tax, trust and insurance planning, asset custody, closely held business issues associated with the establishment or expansion of a family office, the formation of family investment partnerships or LLCs, philanthropy, family dynamics and inter-generation issues, etc.

Every investor will achieve better long-term risk-adjusted results by working with a true open architecture advisor.

Our philosophy is simple: almost every investor will achieve better long-term risk-adjusted results by working with a true open architecture advisor.

Before Shaw Capital Management Korea  launched the open architecture revolution, investors had to make the unhappy choice between selecting an advisor who was independent, but unsophisticated (the traditional pension and endowment consulting firms), or selecting an advisor who was sophisticated but had conflicting interests (global banks, trust companies, money management firms).

Focus on Plutonic Power Corporation (TSX:PCC) Shaw Capital Management News

Plutonic Power Corporation develops environmentally friendly run-of river hydro projects in British Columbia.

Now before we get into the specifics on this one, let's first answer the question: What is run-of-river hydro?

Plutonic defines it quite well, stating that run-of-river projects do not actually require any damming of water. Instead, some of the water in a river is diverted and sent into a pipe called a penstock.

This penstock feeds the water downhill to a generating station. The natural force of gravity creates the energy required to spin the turbines that in turn generate electricity. The water leaves the generating station and is returned to the river without altering the existing flow or water levels.

All of Plutonic's component specifications and construction methods are consistent with providing the least amount of environmental and visual impacts. In fact, in a comparison of environmental impacts, the Ontario Power Authority shows run-of-river hydro to have less of an impact than solar and wind. And of course it rates much better than oil and coal. “In a comparison of environmental impacts, the Ontario Power Authority shows run-ofriver hydro to have less of an impact than solar and wind. And of course it rates much better than oil and coal.”

Shaw Capital Management Korea News:  Operations. Plutonic Power is in the process of building out a number of run-of-river hydro projects in Canada. The first to go online will be the East Toba and Montrose project, which is expected to begin operations later in 2010.

The combined installed capacity of this one will be 196 megawatts. All the electricity to be generated from this project will be sold to BC Hydro under a 35-year sales contract.

In the third quarter 2009, 74 percent of the project's plant construction was completed, and 73 percent of the penstock was completed. 79 percent of the construction of the transmission line was completed.

Shaw Capital Management Korea News: Other projects include: Upper Toba Valley Project (3 facilities). Estimated installed capacity of 166.3 megawatts when completed. Bute Inlet Project (17 facilities). Estimated installed capacity of 1,030 megawatts when completed. Freda Creek Project (1 facility). Estimated installed capacity of 35 megawatts when completed.

The BC Hydro Connection. In June, 2008, BC Hydro launched a Clean Power Call to develop new energy operations. A Request for Proposals followed for projects using proven technologies, such as hydro, wind, solar and geothermal.

This Clean Power Call aligned BC Hydro with the BC Energy Plan which calls for 90 percent of electricity in the province to come from clean or renewable sources and for all new electricity generation projects to have zero net greenhouse gas emissions.

The intent here for BC Hydro is to successfully negotiate power purchase agreements with those chosen from a long list of proposals. … Plutonic is on this list.

And on November 19, 2009, Plutonic Power received notification from By Hydro that the Bute Inlet and Upper Toba Valley Projects will be approved. These projects were proposed jointly with GE Energy Financial Services.

The GE Connection.  In August of 2006, Plutonic Power granted GE Energy Financial Services the exclusive right to make a $100 million equity investment and provide $400 million in debt financing for its East Toba River and Montrose project. In return for the equity investment, GE gets a 49 percent equity stake and 60 percent economic interest in the project. Now by the time BC Hydro issued its request for proposals, GE had given an equity contribution of about $79.3 million and extended about another $71.3 million credit for the East Toba River and Montrose project.

GE also formed a join venture with Plutonic last June 2009 to purchase an uncompleted 144-megawatt wind project in northeast BC. This is the largest wind power project under construction in British Columbia. Given British Columbia's recent announcement that it's going to establish a ‘Green Energy Advisory Task Force’ to help advance the Province's climate, Plutonic Power is in a good position. While Plutonic is knows for run-of-river hydro, this deal allows the company to further develop green assets in Canada. The purchase of this wind project was completed on December 11, 2009. Given British Columbia's recent announcement (November 2, 2009) that it's going to establish a ‘Green Energy Advisory Task Force’ to help advance the Province's climate, to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and build a greener economy, Plutonic Power is in a good position.

Shaw Capital Management Korea - Investment Innovation & Excellence.  We provide the information, insight and expertise that you need to make the right investment choices. Shaw Capital Management Korea typically offers its clients such services as asset allocation and portfolio design; traditional and non-traditional manager review and selection; portfolio implementation; portfolio monitoring and consolidated performance reporting; and other wealth management services, including estate, tax, trust and insurance planning, asset custody, closely held business issues associated with the establishment or expansion of a family office, the formation of family investment partnerships or LLCs, philanthropy, family dynamics and inter-generation issues, etc.

Every investor will achieve better long-term risk-adjusted results by working with a true open architecture advisor.

Shaw Capital Management and Financing - Freight Bill Factoring to Fund Your Need

Using Freight Bill Factoring to Fund Your Transportation Company by Marco Terry.

Most transportation company owners have to constantly juggle responsibilities. They have to handle vehicle repairs, driver payments, insurance payments, office expenses and more importantly - collecting invoices. Collections can be source of problems for many transportation companies (or freight brokerages) since most clients pay their invoices in 30 to 60 days . Few can afford to wait that long.

Shaw Capital Management and Financing provide same-day-funding. We can help you meet your cashflow needs immediately without entering into a long term factoring relationship. The money you get for the freight bills we purchase is payment in full. Shaw Capital helps you to avoid costly mistakes, online scam, fraud and other identity theft transactions before you knew it.

One way to handle slow payment is to try and negotiate a quick pay - basically asking your clients to pay quickly. Some will do it. Others won't, or at least will only offer it if you give them a discount. Although they are not always reliable, negotiating a quick pay can be beneficial in most cases.

Shaw Capital Management and Financing offer a complete line of factoring services, purchase order funding, asset based financing, accounts receivable management, and other related financial services.

If quick pays won't work, your best alternative is to secure business financing to ensure you always have funds on hand to cover business expenses. This can be difficult for most owners since institutions require that all applications have stellar credit, assets that can be held as collateral and many years of experience. This will rule out business loans as an alternative for most small and midsized trucking companies. However, this is not necessarily a big problem since a business loan is not always the solution to this problem.

For many, freight bill factoring will be the better alternative. Freight factoring, as it is commonly known, can provide the equivalent of a quick pay by using an intermediary. The intermediary, called a factoring company, advances you funds against your freight bill. The transaction is settled once your client pays the invoice in full.

One of the advantages of freight factoring is that it provides predictable cash flow, enabling you to comfortably handle your business expenses. It eliminates having to worry about when your clients will pay.

To qualify for freight factoring you need to work with credit worthy clients. Also, your company needs to be free of liens, judgments and other encumbrances. Because of this, freight bill factoring is an ideal solution for small and growing trucking companies and freight brokers.

Shaw Capital Management and Financing offer funding for a wide range of industries and flexible funding requirements that most businesses can easily qualify for.

Shaw Capital Factoring VS Bank Loan

Factoring is Different From a Bank Loan in Raising Cash By Eve Garcia. Companies can sell their invoices to raise cash rather than go down the bank loan route.

Shaw Capital Management and Financing provide same-day-funding. We can help you meet your cashflow needs immediately without entering into a long term factoring relationship. The money you get for the freight bills we purchase is payment in full. Shaw Capital helps you to avoid costly mistakes, online scam, fraud and other identity theft transactions before you knew it.

More organizations and companies are selling invoices to a third party as a means of raising funds.

The financial process known as factoring is where a business sells its accounts receivable - its invoices - to a third party for immediate payment but receives less in return than the value of those invoices.

This system is usually used by a company when its available cash balance is not sufficient to meet its existing commitments or other cash needs such as fresh orders or contracts. It allows the business to maintain a smaller ongoing cash balance, though by selling the invoices for a lower amount than they are actually for.

The invoice is sold to a third party called a factor, and this is where the approach is different from a bank loan when it comes to a business looking to raise funds.

Shaw Capital Management and Financing - Factors make money available even in circumstances where a bank may be less willing to do so.

This is primarily because they are more concerned with the creditworthiness of the debtor - the business or organisation that is required to pay the invoices for the goods or the services delivered by the invoice seller.

In contrast, banks tend to focus more on the creditworthiness of the borrower when looking to lend.

Factoring is seen as a calculated risk by many firms and one they enter into for a specific reason.

The down side is that they are offloading their invoices for less than their face value, but the return is that they are getting the money owed to them much more quickly than they would have done if they had simply pursued the buyer of their goods direct.

A number of companies operate specifically in the factoring and invoice discounting business and actively contact companies and organizations that they believe will benefit from such services.

These firms look to promote a number of benefits of the services they offer to the invoice seller. They suggest that the process is a way to get access to money quickly and safely and that it also avoids the difficulties and inconveniences that can be involved in collecting bad debt.

It is also promoted to potential customer firms as helping to facilitate and smooth out cash flow and as a way of borrowing money that is secured by their debt.

Once the factoring business takes on the invoice and the debt, it has the responsibility of collecting payment. It makes its profit by paying the invoice seller less cash than the face value of the invoice.

It is worth "shopping around" when looking to engage the services of a such a firm, since the market is competitive, with estimates suggesting that in the UK alone it is worth in the region of £200 billion a year, and fees vary.

There are a variety of reasons for this, with a significant fact being the risk associated with the invoices that are purchased.

Before taking on the invoice, the factor will conduct various levels of research. This will include looking into the track record of the debtor firm to assess whether it is creditworthy or has a history of bad payment. Once taken on, the factor will then seek payment from the debtor.

Factoring is used across a wide spectrum of business organisations and more recently the practice - which has a history stretching back to the 14th century in England - has been adopted by government bodies.

Today in the UK, factoring is used in some form by around 50,000 companies as a means of releasing finance.