Commodity Markets - Shaw Capital Management Korea Investment

(PRWEB) February 23, 2011

The general improvement in sentiment in the financial markets over the past month has also been evident in the commodity markets.
There has been further evidence that the global economic recovery in continuing, there has been more support for the view that the pressures resulting from the sovereign debt crisis in Europe may be easing.
As a result, base metals are generally lower over the month, even after the rally on the latest Chinese announcement about the renminbi; most soft commodity prices are slightly lower, although there have been sharp rises in beverage prices on concerns about future supplies; precious metal prices have moved higher as investors have continued to seek “safe havens in the storm”; and there has been a strong recovery in oil prices, helped by optimistic signs of a pick up in US demand.
Base metal prices are ending the past month well above recent low levels, but still slightly lower overall, and there has been an additional boost to confidence in the announcement of a “more flexible” policy towards the renminbi.
It is assumed that even a modest appreciation of the Chinese currency will boost the purchasing power of Chinese buyers, and increase still further China’s position as the world’s largest importer of a broad range of global commodities.
But there is clearly a risk that the importance of this fairly modest move is being exaggerated; and the extent of the earlier reaction should be a powerful warning of the degree of speculative activity in the markets, and the vulnerability of prices. Chinese demand clearly remains a critical factor, and the evidence suggests that it will remain reasonably strong.
Soft commodity markets have again produced a more mixed performance.
Movements in grain prices have been fairly modest, although there has been some support from a recent report by the US Department of Agriculture that the increasing importance of ethanol production will continue to draw down stock levels and help to offset the effects of what is expected to be a bumper grain crop this year.
Most price movements elsewhere have been fairly small; but there have been two significant exceptions. Cocoa prices have been pushed to their highest levels for more than 30 years because of disappointing crop levels in West Africa, and particularly in the Ivory Coast, and the warning that the fall in production will continue unless there is significant investment in new trees and in fertilisers.
There are fears that demand will outstrip supply for the fifth successive year in the 2010/2011 season, and this has forced cocoa buyers to push up prices to cover their requirements, and has exposed the position of banks and others that sold call options in the expectation that prices would fall. The second significant exception has been coffee prices, which have increased by almost 20% during the past month.
The indications are that one commodity-trading house has accumulated a very large number of futures contracts and has indicated that it intends to take delivery of the coffee.
Other funds that had sold futures contracts short have been unable to obtain the coffee to honour those contracts, and so have been forced to scramble to close them and have suffered considerable losses as prices have moved higher.
It is not yet clear whether this technical position has now been cleared; but the fundamentals do not appear to justify the price action, since Brazilian production is expected to be very high in the current season, and so, once the technical position had been cleared, prices could fall fairly sharply.
Oil prices have also been affected by the improvement in market sentiment, and have recovered very sharply over the past month.
Speculative activity has been an important factor; but there has also been an encouraging report from the US Department of Energy indicating strong demand for oil products in the US, and a larger-than-expected reduction in crude oil inventories.
There has also been evidence of continuing strong demand from China; and a warning of the onset of the hurricane season in the Gulf of Mexico, and its possible effects on production levels.
So far however the dramatic oil spill at the BP production well in the Gulf does not appear to have had a noticeable effect on market prices, although the possible consequences, especially for deep-water drilling operations in the future, could clearly become a very significant factor.
The recovery in prices has been very impressive; but it may not be sustainable. OPEC itself has recently issued a very cautious monthly report which argues that “recent developments have moved oil prices out of equilibrium”, and which emphasises that increasing supplies from non-OPEC countries are keeping downward pressure on prices.
It concludes, that “although demand has seen some improvement recently, it has been more than overwhelmed by the higher growth in supply”. It seems likely therefore that the present rally will lose momentum unless there is a serious deterioration in the political situation in the Middle East. Precious metal prices have also moved higher over the past month; investors are clearly still seeking “safe havens in the storm” despite the improvement in sentiment about prospects that has pushed some other commodity prices higher.
Gold prices have reached $1250 per ounce, and silver prices have also moved significantly higher, with exchange-traded funds aggressive buyers of both metals.
The World Gold Council, in its recent quarterly report, indicated that demand for gold was “exceptionally strong”, and that it was expected to remain so for the rest of year, “driven by jewellery demand in India and China, and investment demand in the US and in Europe”.
However it is clear that investment demand is the more important factor, with EFT gold holdings now above 2000 tons, and central banks also adding to their holdings again.
There is an obvious risk that the latest surge in prices will lead to some profit taking. But given the present situation, and particularly the risk of sovereign debt defaults, it would be unwise to assume that the improvement in precious metal prices in over.
At Shaw Capital Management we give you the information and insight you need to make the right investment choices.

Shaw Capital Management: South Korea's Economy

South Koreas output is continuing to accelerate, and the government needs to exit from its accommodative economic policies earlier than anticipated. The HSBC Koreas purchasing managers index (PMI) rose from 55.6 in January to 58.2 in February the highest since December 2007. New orders are coming in, and there are rising backlogs of unfulfilled orders.

Shaw Capital Management: South Koreas Economy - Employment too is rising suggesting that the current pace of growth will be sustained for the next several months. Inflation paced a little with consumer prices up 3.1% in January from a year earlier. But inflation in Korea is likely to remain stable for some months.

The central bank is expected to tighten its monetary policy by starting to raise interest rates from the current record low of 2% in the later part of the second quarter as the government retains its focus on job creation and growth.

Shaw Capital Management: South Koreas Economy - Exports expanded 31% year on year, better than Reuters forecast of 22.7%.

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• Shaw Capital Management: Brazil"��s Economy
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• Shaw Capital Management News: Washington Waxes Brazilian
Brazil provides us with an example of a rapidly developing, energy-hungry economy in the Western Hemisphere, where biofuel is a fact of life. Biofuel is also an investment imperative for energy investors and companies that want to make money in Brazil. As an important part of the #3 economy in the Americas, ethanol can't be ignored by the United States.

South Korea posted a much larger-than-expected
trade surplus of $2.33 billion in February as ship deliveries boosted exports, while imports fell as holidays reduced crude oil and natural gas demand.

The government expects a monthly trade surplus of more than $1 billion from March as demand improves. The current-account surplus is most likely to dwindle to around $17 billion this year from $42.7 billion in 2009 as imports rise. A new Bank of Korea governor, widely expected to be a more pro-government figure, will not rush to raise rates after taking office
in April.

Exports grew 31% from a year earlier to $33.27 billion, faster than the expected rise of 21%, while imports climbed 36.9% to $30.94 billion, exceeding a forecast of an expansion of 34.0%.

South Korea, which is heading the G20 group of leading economies wants to leave an imprint of its presidency.

Shaw Capital Management: South Koreas Economy - It is trying to introduce a system of international currency swaps which it hopes will reduce global imbalances by lessening the need for countries to accumulate reserves, seen as one of the causes of last years financial and
economic crisis.

Shaw Capital Management - Every investor will achieve better long-term risk-adjusted results by working with a true open architecture advisor.

Our philosophy is simple: almost every investor will achieve better long-term risk-adjusted results by working with a true open architecture advisor.

Before Shaw Capital launched the open architecture revolution, investors had to make the unhappy choice between selecting an advisor who was independent, but unsophisticated (the traditional pension and endowment consulting firms), or selecting an advisor who was sophisticated but had conflicting interests (global banks, trust companies, money management firms).

Today, virtually all investors faced with the challenge of managing a significant pool of capital can access open architecture advice.

A true open architecture firm is completely independent of the rest of the financial services industry and accepts compensation only from its clients.

In addition, open architecture firms must make the financial commitment to hire only the most experienced advisors, and those advisors must apply their experience to the issues that will most affect their clients' wealth.

Matters like asset allocation and manager search are simply too important to be left in the hands of young analysts.

We are proud of our role in leading the open architecture revolution, and look forward to introducing you to its benefits

Shaw Capital Management Scam Tips

For Canada, UK and beyond - On this challenging economy you are looking into new territories, markets and industry channels, some of those may be based outside the US. Unlike most purchase order financing companies, we work with businesses seeking growth in foreign markets such as Canada, Mexico UK and Asia. Whether you are looking for PO financing in Canada, purchase order financing in Mexico or PO funding throughout the EU, our international PO financing program is designed to assist your busi...

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Shaw Capital Guide to Business Loans from Family & Friends
Shaw Capital Management and Financing – The key to successful financing is structuring loans right.

Shaw Capital Management Newsletter August: Financial Markets Focus on Europe

Shaw Capital Management, Korea - Innovation & Investment Excellence. We provide information, insight and expertise you need to make the right investment choices.
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
PRLog (Press Release) - February 2, 2011 - The great fall of the euro in recent months is clearly having a significant impact on the performance of the area Theeuro economy http://garageheatersshop.com/mr-heater-propane.html.Shaw Capital Management, Korea - investing in innovation and excellence. We provide information, insight and expertise you need to make the right investment choices.Shaw Capital Management Korea usually provides its customers with services such as asset allocation and portfolio design; manager review and non-traditional and selection, portfolio implementation, portfolio monitoring and reporting consolidated performance, and other wealth management services, including property, tax, trust and insurance planning, custody of assets, closely held business issues related to creating or expanding a family office, the formation of investment partnerships or limited liability company of family, philanthropy, family dynamics and inter-generational issues, production etc.Factory grew at a record pace in April, helped by capital expenditures associated with the export effort, and overseas demand for European goods, and the trend seems to continue.The main beneficiaries were Germany, but other countries are also members of the North involved.However the situation is less encouraging in Greece, Spain and Portugal, because they are less competitive in export markets, and are obliged to introduce austerity measures to reduce their budget request deficits.Domestic in the euro area remains low overall, and so despite the export performance of some countries, it seems unlikely that the rate of overall growth of the area this year will reach 2%.

Shaw Capital Guide to Business Loans from Family & Friends

Shaw Capital Management and Financing – The key to successful financing is structuring loans right. Avoid Debt Management Scams.

An estimated half of all small businesses depend on private investments from family and friends for startup or expansion. Shipping giant UPS was launched when 19-year-old entrepreneur Jim Casey borrowed $100 from a friend to start the company nearly 100 years ago in Seattle. And when teenager Fred DeLuca open a sandwich shop in 1965 with a $1,000 check from a family friend, Subway (now 25,000 restaurants) was born. Friends and family are the single most important outside funding source for small business in America. But there are risks, and "F&F" money must be approached carefully.

Shaw Capital Guide to Business Loans from Family & Friends - Action Steps. The best contacts and resources to help you get it done.

Put a financing facilitator to work. Small business loans from friends and family often go awry because they haven't been properly structured and administered. Sign up a service that will prepare documents, create repayment schedules, bill, collect payments and provide year-end tax statements.

I recommend: Virgin Money (formerly CircleLending) has been a pioneer in private loan administration. The firm helps manage transactions such as small business loans between private parties — especially family and friends.

Shaw Capital Management and Financing – The key to successful financing is structuring loans right. Avoid Debt Management Scams - Offer equity in your business. If your business is a corporation or LLC, your funding source can become an equity investor, buying shares in your business.

I recommend: At Intuit's MyCorporation.com web site, you can incorporate a business or form an LLC online for as little as $149, plus state filing fees.

Put your plan in writing. Even with family and friends, you need to put a business plan and request for funding in writing. Make it as detailed, professional and realistic as you can. Aim for full disclosure of all potential risks.

I recommend: A terrific place to find help writing your plan is Bplans.com.

Arm yourself with finance facts. The better you understand the intricacies of financing, the more likely you are to succeed.

I recommend: "Financing Your Small Business: How to Borrow Money from People Your Know," is a helpful booklet produced jointly by SCORE and CircleLending.

Shaw Capital Management and Financing Guide to Business Loans from Family & Friends - Tips & Tactics . Helpful advice for making the most of this Guide. Plan your approach in advance. Think about your ideal loan and how it would work, and have those details at hand. Be yourself when you approach people for money. Don't try to suddenly come off like a big corporate executive. That's likely to be a turnoff. Don't borrow more than your friend or relative can afford to lose. Let them name the final amount. You don't have to get it all from one person. Agree on terms and formalize the agreement in writing. If it's a loan, this should specify an interest rate, repayment schedule and whether the loan is secured or not.

Shaw Capital Guide to Interest-Free SBA ARC Loans for Debt Relief

Shaw Capital Management and Financing – Avoid debt and interest scams. Recovery Act Emergency Loans to $35,000 for Small Business. If your small business is struggling to pay debts, you may qualify for a new type of interest-free loan in amounts up to $35,000, guaranteed by the U.S. Small Business Administration. The temporary emergency program, called America’s Recovery Capital, or ARC, was authorized under the economic stimulus law passed earlier in the year and is now being launched by the SBA. 

For borrowers, ARC loans will be interest-free, and with no SBA fees attached. But as with all SBA financing programs, the ARC loans will be made by private, commercial lenders, not SBA directly. Lenders, of course, won’t make loans for free, so the SBA will pay lenders monthly interest on the ARC loans on your behalf. And that’s basically free money for you and a good chance to get a little breathing room if you’re facing burdensome debt payments.

ARC loans are deferred-payment loans available to established, viable, for-profit small businesses that are suffering hardship right now and need short-term help to make principal and interest payments on existing debt.  These loans are interest-free to the borrower (you), and 100 percent guaranteed by the SBA.

Shaw Capital Management and Financing - Here’s How it Works. In addition to the loans being zero interest and fully guaranteed by the government, you don't have to make any payments until a year after you receive the last of the funds, which will be disbursed within a period of up to six months. After the initial 12-month payment-free grace period, you'll have five years to pay it off. 

Banks and other financial institutions that make small business loans should have information on the program available soon, and it will be up to them whether or not to participate. Meanwhile, details and updates on the program will be available at the SBA’s special Economic Recovery Act website at www.sba.gov/recovery. Keep in mind that proceeds from an ARC loan must be used specifically to make payments of principal and interest on existing business debt. But that includes a wide range of different types of loans, leases and lines that you might have.

Here are the types of debt that will qualify:
1.      Commercial mortgages on a building or property that your business owns.
2.      Conventional term loans, including secured and unsecured.
3.      Revolving lines of credit.
4.      Capital leases.
5.      Credit card debt.
6.      Notes payable to vendors, suppliers and utilities.
7.      First mortgages loans under SBA’s 504 Development Company Loan Program.
8.      Any SBA guaranteed loans made after Feb. 17, 2009 (but not SBA-backed loans made prior to that date).

For many business owners, paying down high-interest credit card debt would be the best use of ARC funds. But you will have to prove that the debt was incurred for specific business purposes, and the documentation requirements to use ARC funds for credit card debt could be stringent.

The loan application process, however, is designed to be rather quick. Once lenders submit the application, SBA is promising turnaround within 5-10 business days.

The “Viable” Business Standard
The key to qualifying for and receiving an ARC loan is whether your business is considered "viable" and is facing “immediate financial hardship.”   While the standards don’t seem to present a major hurdle for existing businesses that have had success in the past, the viability measure might rule out newer businesses that haven’t turned a profit. And ARC loans are specifically not intended for startups.

Here's how the SBA defines “viable” for getting one of these loans:

"A viable small business is one that has been profitable in the past, but is just beginning to struggle with making loan payments, and can reasonably project that it can get back on track with the infusion of ARC loan funds and the benefit of deferred payments."

Examples of financial hardship offered by the SBA include declining sales or revenues, or difficulties in paying the operating expenses of the business. ARC loans will be available through SBA-approved lenders as long as the money holds out, or through September 30, 2010.  Daniel Kehrer is Editor and Director of Content Development for Business.com, and write the What Works for Business blog.

Factoring and Accounts Receivable Financing Expert Tips

Shaw Capital Management and Financing sharing information, tips and advice on factoring and accounts receivable financing and factoring to avoid scams and other fraudulent transactions. Information focus on the importance of choosing the right firm and understanding the intricacies of this financing alternative and what pitfalls to avoid.

There probably isn't a day when Canadian business owners and financial managers don't hear about factoring and accounts receivable financing as a method of financing their business in Canada. Despite its growing popularity and, we can say, relative importance in the Canadian business financing marketplace this financing mechanism is still somewhat understood.

What information do business owners need to know in order to assess if factoring, also known as invoice discounting, is a viable transaction? Also, are there mistakes and pitfalls to be avoided when considering this financing strategy?

Let's examine the answers to some of those questions. You can be forgiven for trying to figure out why factoring has increased in prominence from a time when no one had almost ever heard of it! The answer to that popularity is more simply and obvious than you might think, and its simply that Canadian chartered banks are finding it increasingly more difficult to fund accounts receivable (and inventory of course) to the extent that their customers need this financing.

When you have a situation where the actual need for financing is acute, and the benefits and flexibility seems significant it is not hard to see the rise in popularity of such a financing mechanism.

First of all, 99% of the time, factoring provides your firm with a greater level of borrowing based on your accounts receivable levels. Quite of 90-100% of you're A/R under 90 days can be financed.

So is it all good news? Not necessarily, as we are always meeting with clients that have chosen the wrong type of funding or factoring, and, even worse, find them locked into contracts they cannot get out of. That is uncomfortable for any size firm as you can imagine.

As with any newer type of financing the playing field is complex. You can be forgiven for not knowing how many factor firms are out there, how they run, what their own limitations are, and, even to a certain extent, do they in fact themselves have the funding to survive, let along finance your firm. For that reason we cannot over emphasize the need to work with a credible, experienced and trusted professional in this area.

Lets talk about some of the nuances, we can call them potential 'pitfalls 'also, of picking the wrong factoring partner. For a starter if you choose a firm who itself is not well capitalized, as we said, you might find that the financing commitments made to you cannot be honored. Canadian business has never had to think that the Canadian chartered banks could be 'out of money 'but the Canadian landscape is somewhat littered with small and medium sized factor firms that do not have the financial wherewithal to support their funding commitments in all places. That just re - enforces our idea that a trusted industry expert will guide you to the best partner for your firm.

Other issues, again, we can call them pitfalls, to look for include:

- being locked into a contract

- having the total factoring cost, or pricing, not reflected properly in your term sheet

- advance rates which don't make sense relative to the price you are paying for discounting invoices

- excessive notification and intrusion with your customers, which is very prevalent in the U.S. model of factoring (Many Canadian factor firms are branches of U.S. firms)

So let's recap. It's simply that factoring is growing in popularity. It works because it is providing funding where banks often cannot. If you don't understand who you are dealing with and the various nuances of this type of financing it becomes a burden, not a solution. Investigate this great financing mechanism, but ensure you know what you are getting into. Talking to an expert always helps - that's just common sense

Stan Prokop is founder of 7 Park Avenue Financial. Originating financing for Canadian companies, specializing in working capital, cash flow, and asset based financing, the 6 year old firm has completed in excess of 45 Million $ of financing for companies of all size.